Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Hanna's 8:00AM potential track.

1125 HRS: Latest release from Camden Emergency management, released just after 11:00 NOAA report:
CAMDEN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY EVENT: Tropical Storm Hanna SITUATION REPORT, TS-H3 All information contained in the report is based on the CURRENT forecast. PROCLAMATIONS/DECLARATIONS: None at this time. POTENTIAL EFFECTS TO CAMDEN COUNTY: RECOMMENDED LOCAL ACTIONS: Based on current advisory, Camden County does not expect Hurricane force winds or significant storm surge. If conditions remain the same, no evacuations are expected. Camden County residents should review their hurricane plans, stock their hurricane supplies and monitor the progress of the storm. Periodical updates will be provided as long as the threat of tropical weather exist. To monitor the progress of the storm between updates, please check the National Hurricane Center website at http:/ or call the Emergency Management office at 912-729-5602. CURRENT CONDITIONS: Tropical Storm Hanna: Over the past 24 hours, Hanna performed a tight cyclonic loop and now appears to be drifting to the north at a forward speed of perhaps 2 to 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds early this morning are near 60 mph. The overall track model guidance has shifted a bit to the east early this morning. It appears that the track Hanna took to the south yesterday has influenced its final landfall location. The storm will now have farther north to travel and the flow aloft ahead of a incoming trough of low pressure will steer the storm far enough to the east to bring it inland somewhere on the South Carolina coast. Most of the model guidance clusters on a landfall on the South Carolina coast on Friday evening. Therefore, Hanna is forecast to gradually speed up in forward speed as it tracks northwestward over the next 2 to 3 days. My forecast call now is for a landfall a bit further up the South Carolina coast, between Charleston and Myrtle Beach on Friday evening. The shear that has been pounding Hanna over the past 24 hours or so has finally begun to really weaken the storm; although, the shear has now begun to lessen around the storm. A large extratropical low remains off the southeastern Canadian coast, holding a trough of low pressure in place over the western Atlantic. Until this large low pressure system moves out of the region, which is expected to occur by late tonight or early Thursday, the shear will not significantly lessen over Hanna. Ridging is then expected to build into the region during the day Thursday and through Friday. Once this happens, the shear is expected to decrease. So, very slow intensification, if any, is anticipated today into tonight with steady intensification forecast for Thursday, Thursday night and through Friday. I expect Hanna to make landfall as a upper end Category 1 or low end Category 2 hurricane (90 to 100 mph) on Friday evening. All interests on the southeast US coast should continue to monitor the progress of Hanna closely and start thinking about what actions you will take when Hurricane Watches and Warnings go up. Tropical Storm Ike: Ike continues to maintain an excellent satellite presentation and banding features have become more organized in a centralized area of deep convection. In addition, the entire system is rather symmetrical in shape. Ike has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and it appears that the environmental conditions are quite favorable for development ahead of Ike. A ridge of high pressure near Ike is now located to the southeast of the storm and is providing divergence aloft. Wind shear values are 10 knots or less and these wind shear values are forecast to remain at 10 knots or less right into this weekend. I expect steady intensification for the next several days and Ike may be a Category 3 hurricane by Monday morning. Ike is tracking to the west-northwest at a forward speed of 18 mph. The track forecast for the next couple of days is pretty straightforward as a ridge of high pressure to the north of Ike will push the storm on a west to west-northwest course. By this weekend, there is more uncertainty. The global models depict a building of a ridge of high pressure to the north and northwest of Ike this weekend and this would force a turn toward the west-southwest and perhaps even southwest. The track model guidance differ on how much the storm will turn. The GFDL and BAMD models are the southernmost and bring Ike over Hispaniola, whereas the UKMET model takes Ike to a much higher latitude. The model consensus forecasts Ike to be located in the southeastern Bahamas by late this weekend into early next week and this may end up being close to reality. Click For Tropical Weather Information Prepared by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather ServicesDisclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

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