Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Camden EMA Tropical Storm Fay Advisories.

CAMDEN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY EVENT: Tropical Storm Fay SITUATION REPORT, TS-F8 All information contained in the report is based on the CURRENT forecast. Tropical Weather Discussion Issued: Wednesday, August 20, 2008 540 am EDT Tropical Storm Fay has turned slowly northward after finally reaching the east-central Florida coast early this morning. The center, however, remains just inland along the coast north of Melbourne and in fact may not emerge over the Atlantic until this afternoon when Fay is expected to move north of the Cape Canaveral area. Most of the global models are now indicating a tighter turn to the northwest and then a sharper westward jog across North Florida after late Thursday and into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday night or Saturday. In fact, the GFS and European models forecast that Fay will track across the northern part of the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and possibly come ashore early next week. The GFDL and HWRF models are exceptions to this scenario and keep Fay moving northwestward across Georgia and Alabama, but even those models are no longer taking Fay east of 80 West Longitude. So, at this point it appears that Fay will track north or north-northeast paralleling the east coast of Florida near Cape Canaveral today and then turn northwestward and come ashore near Daytona Beach late tonight. On Thursday into Friday morning, it is possible that Fay could track westward across northern Florida between Orlando and Gainesville and possibly emerge into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico Friday afternoon or Friday night. It is still possible that Fay could reach hurricane strength today, however, it seems more likely that the storm will remain a moderate to strong tropical storm as it moves north or north-northeastward along the coast and is not expected to move more than 30 miles offshore today into tonight. The GFDL and HWRF are also no longer forecasting Fay to reach hurricane strength. Fay has maintained good convective banding features and is located in a region of good upper-level outflow, so some strengthening is possible today into tonight and it is expected that Fay will come ashore as a 70 mph tropical - 2 - storm late tonight, although like I just said Fay could reach hurricane strength before landfall. Once ashore, Fay's intensity will large hinge on the track it takes into Florida. If Fay moves further inland over Florida and into the interior southeast United States, then Fay will likely decay into a tropical low. However, if Fay does track into the northern Gulf of Mexico, like the GFS and European models are forecasting, then Fay could restrengthen this weekend. PROCLAMATIONS/DECLARATIONS: None at this time. POTENTIAL EFFECTS TO CAMDEN COUNTY: Tropical Storm Fay is still expected to be a heavy rain maker for Southeast Georgia. The possibility for sustained winds greater than 40 mph remain in effect across most of our county for Thursday and into Friday morning. RECOMMENDED LOCAL ACTIONS: Based on current advisory, Camden County does not expect Hurricane force winds or significant storm surge. If conditions remain the same, no evacuations are expected. Camden County residents should review their hurricane plans, stock their hurricane supplies and monitor the progress of the storm. Periodical updates will be provided as long as the threat of tropical weather exist. To monitor the progress of the storm between updates, please check the National Hurricane Center website at http:/ or call the Emergency Management office at 912-729-5602

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