Camden Commentary: Camden Watchdog now has a very interesting Laurel Island feasability study posted on their website.

Friday, July 31, 2009

Camden Watchdog now has a very interesting Laurel Island feasability study posted on their website.

http://www.camdenwatchdog.com/media/parkerstudy.pdf

19 comments:

Anonymous said...: I like this paragraph from page 46 of the PDF
"The ability to target specific market segments is essential to a successful marketing plan; for the Laurel Island development, there is one key target group – Active Adults (retirees and pre-etirees), nearly all originating from beyond the immediate area."

How can that guy think that he can build this kind of development with the economy like it is right now.; July 31, 2009 at 5:21 PM
Anonymous said...: If it is such a wonderful plan and idea they should have no problem raising the necessary financing to proceed and without public backing and taking it off of county and city tax rolls for 40 years.; July 31, 2009 at 7:29 PM
Jay Moreno said...: You probably know this, but for the benefit of those who don't know it does not take it entirely off the tax rolls for 40 years. Taxes will be assessed against the appreciated value of whatever it is generating in taxes the day before the TAD is passed. So, the taxing entities will getr exactly what they would have gotten in taxes fpr the next forty years if the property underwent no further development whatsoever.

What would not go to the taxing entities for the next forty years is the taxes due on the increased value of the property due to the developemnt itself. Those taxes are collected by the taxing entities, but used to pay off the TAD bonds. After the forty years, 100% of the tax revenues revert back tot he taxing entities.

Incidentally, the flip side of it possibly flopping is that in any year where the taxes on the incremental value exceed the annual debt service on the bonds., the city would have the option of either using those excess funds to retire the bonds early OR put those excess funds into the general fund for that year.

I think that the market for this project may well exist, but only if the economy recovers strongly.

It may well be that if he got the TAD and started infrastructure construction next year, he just might hit the timing on the recovery juut right and be fabulously succesful. The antithesis is also entirely possible.; July 31, 2009 at 8:43 PM
Anonymous said...: As a Realtor ®, I can tell you we are inundated in our market with lots for sale. Just take a look at the Wednesdays T&G and read the legal section. I will name a few, Cumberland Harbour, Camden Reserve, Sanctuary Cove, Winding River, Misty Harbor, all of North Shore, Bridge Pointe at Jekyll Sound. The list goes on and on. We do not need to fund a GOB in his failed attempt to sell overpriced lots in this economy. Jay, you have heard he has tried to get investors from around the world involved, and now he is trying to use St. Marys?? It makes no sense to me. I would love for someone to dig deeper, because I think you would find he tried to float this one by Kingsland first. That would be the logical choice. It baffles me that St. Marys would even consider such a stunt as this. Just my 2 cents, whatever that is worth these days.; July 31, 2009 at 9:03 PM
Anonymous said...: I really don't believe St. Marys City Council cares if this development is successful. I think in fact the laws should be checked to see who the property would belong to if the development is unsuccessful. It's also fascinating to look at the proximity of this property to the proposed site for the new airport on the map.

The only purpose I believe Drury serves is they feel their chances are better getting a TAD passed if they utilize the talents of a "local"; July 31, 2009 at 9:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Chip has failed at all of his worthless ventures. He was going to buy the mill, the golf course, and kinds of other crap. He will be like Howard Gilman and piss away the whole family fortune before it is all said and done. This TAD will never fly and Chip will never do what he says. Look at his track record. He is full of it. His ideas would not work anywhere. The things that he wants to do with the property will never ever work. Yall will see. Just another rich kid blowing Daddy's money; July 31, 2009 at 10:08 PM
Anonymous said...: jay, correct me if im wrong or if i just misunderstood.is right that if the city got one tad to pass they could give it to any of the ones afterwards they wanted to without going back to the voters?
in otherwords if they gave one to chip with our vote,they could give one to landmar without our votes; July 31, 2009 at 10:32 PM
Anonymous said...: http://nreionline.com/property/mixed_use/real_estate_pristine_island_awaits_0701/

http://www.co.camden.ga.us/archives/31/minutes%20021704.pdf

For your reading pleasure. Even Drury, in his letter to the Camden Watchdogs, says "the economy is horrible" - so where are all of these "boomers-sans-kids" who are willing to pay $700,000 per LOT going to come from?
Once again, St. Marys will leap - and then be stuck with a go-nowhere project. Drury's been trying to seel others on this venture around the world (with no takers) and now, due to his "emotional connections" to St. Marys he wants to use us as a last resort.; July 31, 2009 at 10:32 PM
Anonymous said...: when and if the yachts come ,hope they only want to leave or comehome at high tide. at low tide I hit bottom in 2 spots and i draft in 9"of water; July 31, 2009 at 11:00 PM
Jay Moreno said...: I do believe that this post has generated more intial comments than any one I've ever posted before.; August 1, 2009 at 8:17 AM
Jay Moreno said...: Anonymous said...
jay, correct me if im wrong or if i just misunderstood.is right that if the city got one tad to pass they could give it to any of the ones afterwards they wanted to without going back to the voters?
in otherwords if they gave one to chip with our vote,they could give one to landmar without our votes

That is my understanding as well. Rather than going to a referendum,
any subsequnet TAD would be subjuect only to the approval of the city council. Whatever entitity the city should chooose to administer the first TAD could administer an additional number of TADS, subject only to the approval of the council and the fact that the total value of the base value (i.e., assessed value of all the TADS before improvements) could not, in the aggregate, exceed 10% of the city's total tax base.; August 1, 2009 at 8:21 AM
Anonymous said...: "That is my understanding as well. Rather than going to a referendum,
any subsequent TAD would be subject only to the approval of the city council. Whatever entity the city should choose to administer the first TAD could administer an additional number of TADS, subject only to the approval of the council and the fact that the total value of the base value (i.e., assessed value of all the TADS before improvements) could not, in the aggregate, exceed 10% of the city's total tax base."

That's correct...and do any of us trust the "administrators" (chosen, I believe, by Council)? Am I just paranoid or is anyone else seeing a pattern here: unused water treatment plant, airport relocation. Drury's TAD, a new resurgence of talk about a TAD for the old mill property...the beat goes on and it's the same old players every time.; August 1, 2009 at 10:21 AM
Anonymous said...: thanks thats one thing all needs to know also.; August 1, 2009 at 4:50 PM
Anonymous said...: Sea Island owns about 70% of the marsh property on the Satilla River. Drurys property would make an excellent addition.

You guys are ABSOLUTELY CORRECT!! They're so confident in the success of the Drury TAD that their already forming alliances.

The alliance between the JDA, St. Marys City Council and Durango Bankruptcy is being formed in antipation of open TAD season.; August 1, 2009 at 7:16 PM
Anonymous said...: Jay,

Your Realtor ® buddy again. I just checked our MLS and some other data centers. Currently with the amount of lots for sale in Camden County (Not counting foreclosures), we have a 9 year, THAT IS YEAR inventory of lots. I know the economy sucks, and things will right themselves, but I see it being at least 3-5 years before the available lots for sale are sold. So I am not sold on Mr. Drury’s dream just yet. I think it is a pipe dream at this point, and would strongly vote against a TAD at this time. Personally, I think he should tow his on line on this one, without the help of the taxpayers. Just my 2 cents if they are worth that anymore.; August 1, 2009 at 8:51 PM
Jay Moreno said...: Realtor, I don't doubt your figures for all lots of all types, but I'm sure the number of old growth oak forested lots on high bluffs on deep water on a private island are somewhat less plentiful.

I'm sure that when the economy comes back, there will be people willing to pay $700,000 for such a lot to build a $2 million dollar home. The question is, who will have the cajones to be the first buyer of such a homesite in a development which may or may not come to full fruition with all of the promiseed amenities.; August 1, 2009 at 9:09 PM
Anonymous said...: Realtor, I don't doubt your figures for all lots of all types, but I'm sure the number of old growth oak forested lots on high bluffs on deep water on a private island are somewhat less plentiful.

I'm sure that when the economy comes back, there will be people willing to pay $700,000 for such a lot to build a $2 million dollar home. The question is, who will have the cajones to be the first buyer of such a homesite in a development which may or may not come to full fruition with all of the promiseed amenities.

Jay,

I agree 100%. Your last sentence says it all. Bravo. No TAD; August 1, 2009 at 10:15 PM
Anonymous said...: Aug. 2/09
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Sunday that signs of stabilization and increased confidence in the economy could be dashed if home prices were to take another turn downward.

Greenspan told ABC's "This Week With George Stephanopoulos" that he didn't believe that a steep drop was in store, but home prices had stabilized only temporarily.

"It is possible that could get a second wave down," Greenspan said. "Under those conditions, we would get a very significant change in the underlying confidence in the consumer area," as foreclosures rise and more home values fall below their mortgage levels.

(Chip should read the news from time to time).

With the on-going Synovus/Sea Island debacle and law suits, I don't think that the latter will be in a position to buy anything along the Satilla River (much less "donate" land for St. Marys airport).

As I have said in the past: if Drury wants to squander money on this ill-advised and poorly-timed project, more power to him. I just do not wish to invest MY money in it (and, yes, one TAD will lead to another like falling dominos).; August 2, 2009 at 10:07 AM
Jay Moreno said...: I would just point out that if a TAD were to pass - and I don't think it stands the chance of a whore in church - you would not be "investing your money" unless you bought the municipal bonds.

Drury is technically correct when he says that the risk would legally be solely upon the bondholders. However, the chances of the city totally walking away from the debt if the project went belly up - although they legally could - are very slim because of the deleterious effect upon the city's bond rating.; August 2, 2009 at 12:26 PM